Autumn leaves

This past week I took the liberty of asking a few questions of the people I met shopping or having a cup of coffee. These were not scientifically formulated questions, but every day questions you would ask your friends and neighbors. How's business? How do you think Berlin is doing? Is your job secure? What do you think about the old recovery boiler and stack? Do you think Laidlaw is a good deal for Berlin? What do you think is going to happen with downtown? Are you happy with Mayor and Council? These were run of the mill questions not to get numbers as much as to get the mood of the people. My conclusions? How I wish I knew how to get people to come out from their cozy living rooms and to council meetings and public hearings. The collective wisdom of the citizens is amazing, but their mood is somber and not optimistic. Generally speaking people are real concerned about everything that has to do with the economy. Many are afraid to lose their jobs and businesses and, many believe that we've seen the best America has to offer. Most are convinced that our standard of living is and will continue to go down. Quite a few are afraid of having to sell their homes and would sell them now but say the market is too bad for them to get the money back that they have invested in them. Only a few folks were unhappy with Mayor and Council and about half of those who were unhappy was because they didn't think Mayor and Council did enough to get rid of the boiler and stack. Of the 40 to 50 people I spoke to about a half dozen said that we need the jobs Laidlaw would bring and a few of them said they wished there was "something better to put there, but nothing else has been offered". I heard the usual complaints about the condition of the streets and the fact that it rains all the time. The majority of people can't understand why the City allows burned down buildings to remain in place. About half of the people said that downtown is "dead" and that the burnt out building downtown is a "black eye" for Berlin. Many people said that they see more and more ATV's on trailers over the weekend (from Mass) and that we should do something to attract more tourist that are in Gorham. It might have been that the rainy weather had gotten to most people, but most conversations ended on a sour note, that they didn't see "how in hell we're going to get of of this mess". Being a native of Berlin and knowing what happens to our collective mood when the leaves of autumn fall, I can only hope that something positive comes up before we go into the winter months.   How does this compare with how you think things are going?

Comments

[Jonathan Edwards]

People may be in for a surprise that things are really good for Berlin under the current economic circumstances. Provided the federal prison project doesn't get curtailed from housing inmates, Berlin will see an influx of 350 correctional facility employees all of whom will add to this area's economy tremendously. This area has more projects in the works now than I have seen in over 20 years. Seeing more and more ATV's coming into the city from out of town is very encouraging and I understand we now have the connection from Jericho to Success in the final stages to attract more people to the area. As the old adage reminds us, "Rome wasn't built in a day" and we can't expect Berlin to rebound overnight. The scope of all proposed projects is large enough so as we can't expect them to happen overnight. The very fact that so many proposals exist is quite an upgrade for Berlin and it is reasonable to assume that some of these will come to fruition to further enhance the economy.

Are people you spoke with Rocky, really looking at the forest through the trees, or are they just looking at today's picture and basing our economy on what they see on the news? What many people I speak with these days have on their minds is completely different from what you are reporting. Then again, due to the nature of my business I tend to communicate mostly with speculators, developers, business people and government officials who are aware of what potentially will be driving our economy in the near future, and that drive is certainly different than what this one industry city has counted on in the past. I wonder, Rocky, if these folks you spoke with, really know what's going on. When I run into a naysayer on Berlin's economy, I usually find they are uninformed of the positive details and pass those along to them.

[Rocky]

Excellent points Jon! There is an information gap and I'm sure attitudes would be more positive if they shared the information you have.

[Jillian]

I was always under the impression that it was the role of the press to inform and educate the citizens. Isn't that why we have freedom of the press and the right to know laws? With two newspapers I would think people would be quite well informed. I think things are somewhere between what Rocky reports and Jon says is going on, but to tell you the truth, I didn't know about a lot of what Jon talks about.

[theindependent]

Sarah Palin resigned...if the rest of the damned sitting politicians would do the same we'd be able to start from scratch and finally get something done...don't ya think?

[Rocky]

Watching the circus over health care reform has given me a new perspective on insanity. These whore politicians lie straight face telling us we have the best health care possible while we're all going broke being screwed by insurance and drug companies. These whores are all being bought by special interests. So I agree with you theindependent, but I don't think they're all about to quit.

[Jonathan Edwards]

From time to time I research Ellicotteville NY to catch up on the news and found an article that I think is very interesting that I will link here at the bottom of this post. Though it has been a breath of fresh air to be discussing other important issues aside from Laidlaw, the individual in the following link has opened a "green ATV" business in Ellicottville NY. Coincidentally he is also the same business man who sold the Ellicotteville mill to Laidlaw. He's also the same individual who claims to have been owed millions when Laidlaw went into receivership in that town. His name is Bill Northrup and he is the same businessman who told me that he had thought of converting his mill to biomass prior to selling to Laidlaw, but wasn't convinced the conversion could possibly be carbon neutral due to insufficient supply of low grade wood in close proximity to Ellicotteville. Sound familiar?

Now...What if we were to become the RESPONSIBLE green energy capitol of New England? We are being told that our trees our one of most precious resources as we look around in every direction at continued liquidation harvesting, that like a cancer, seems to be spreading from Dillon to other landholders. We have tens of thousands of tourists that come to view these trees each year, and to hike and recreate abound below these trees. Many people are concerned that opening up the city or coos county in general to a massive influx of motorized recreational vehicles could negatively impact the peace and tranquility of why many people come to our Great North Woods to enjoy it.

What better solutions can there be than to be responsible as a region when it comes to moving into a direction of "going green", Wood commodity businesses that can enhance our forests rather than deplete them appropriately positioned as opposed to eyesore appearances... But why should we just be focusing on "green energy plants" when we might be able to further capitalize with Bill Northrup's help in expanding into green energy ATV use; electric ATV's? Here's a brief explanation of what these green machines could offer a prestine area such as the Great North Woods in all its peace and serenity:

"The company’s e.Force E-ATV is 100 percent electric, tops out at 35 mph and can deliver 374 foot-pounds of torque on a 28 horsepower motor powered by a battery you plug into your garage socket to re-charge for about 30 cents each time. Selling at $7,000 retail, slightly more than standard gas-powered ATVs, it is quiet, non-polluting and is targeted at hunting, law-enforcement and parks and recreation markets."

I wonder if anyone in city hall has ever talked with Bill Northrup? If not, boy do I think they need to. I wonder if tax incentives can be made available for buying "green recreational machines" or whether fees for their use could be less to encourage their use. With a state ATV park as our neighbor and wood commodity businesses eying the city more than ever, what a great time to use the phrase "It is Berlin's responsibility to move into green energy and city wide ATV use very responsibly and in balance with our Great North Woods.

http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/stories/2009/04/13/daily13.html

[Rocky]

Good stuff Jon, always thinking. You're right someone from Berlin/City needs to connect with Mr. Northrup and explore opportunities.

[Wing Nut]

Rocky & others,

The economy is quite bad so I can completely understand people's pessimistic views. While some good things are happening here in Berlin (ATV park, Federal Prison, possible CP Biomass plant, possible wood pellet plant, etc.) the local and national economy is still really struggling. Add to that the fact that our national debt continues to increase unabated leaving our children, our children's children and even our children's children's children saddled with debt, and you have what appears to be the makings of the end of American dream as we know it. Wages are stagnant, manufacturing jobs are disappearing, health care costs are out of control, the cost of higher education continues to skyrocket and social security may not be available for my generation even though we’ll have paid into it our entire lives. And, the weather sucks (although this weekend was nice for a change). So, I'm sure you can understand why people are not upbeat about the future of this country. Even those of us with good jobs are wondering if we are the next casualties in this horrible economy. I know, maybe BHO can throw another trillion dollars at the problem and pray for a better result this time around.

Take care.........WN.

[Matthew]

Jon, you might find it of interest that I am currently the lead researcher on a project at the University of New Hampshire that is designing and converting a snowmobile to run off of electricity. Again, zero emissions and should be relatively cheap to recharge. Could be another green recreational vehicle we will be seeing in the future.

Cheers!

[V.]

Just becasuse things are worse than they have ever been doesn't mean things aint going great? People is just ignorant of all the good things going on..... Or planned and dreamed of but will never be followed through with.... The reality is Berlin is in absolutely horribleshape and not doing even close to what it needs to do to recover. About as many peopleare going to buy that spin as are buying real estate in Berlin. Just becasue it looks like Afghanistan doesn't mean things are just great!!!!!

[Jonathan Edwards]

Matt, I find it more than interesting. Would you be interested in being part of a forum on "green recreational vehicles"? I think that would be very interesting and very pertinent to Berlin. Perhaps UNH would be interested in being part of a forum?

[Jonathan Edwards]

V, Though I know real estate is not The yard stick of the economy it certainly is a gauge as to how things are locally. So this post pertains to the local economic outlook only through real estate sales statistics and not other economic indicators.

Things are not even close to as bad as they were in the early 1990's, and many many positives are already coming to fruition in this city despite the national economy. Back in the early 90's we were purchasing at auction, structurally sound buildings at city auction as follows:
6 Unit: $8.57 (that's eight dollars and fifty seven cents)no one bid, so we jokingly said we'd bid the address of 857, purchased it and moved in 30days later.

5 Unit: $500.00 (that's Five hundred dollars)

Also at that time, The Kentucky Fried Chicken building sold for a $1.00 (that's 100 cents) That sale involved picking up back taxes but was still a ridiculous sales price.

These sales may have been exceptions to the rules, but the point of the matter is that you would not even come close to seeing these prices in this day and age.These are just a few examples of many deals that went down at that time that indicate to me a far worse situation back then than now no matter how much inflation is figured in, for Berlin anyhow. On one day back in 1990 Berlin saw 28 foreclosures happen. Foreclosures are happening today, yet the local market is no where near as bad as then. Right now the issue is that fewer sales are happening, and some foreclosures are bringing prices downward as they always do. But there are still properties, especially those in turn key condition, that are selling at retail prices and are not "give-a-ways."

Berlin has always been somewhat sheltered from highs and lows within the economy. Many times we've looked at this fact as a negative because we didn't see the massive increases in property value, but today it is a big positive as we didn't have any where near as far to fall as a result of the national economy. In fact, the assessors at Avitar who assess all over NH, showed a mere 5% decrease in value from 2007 to 2008 in "fair value" sales data for Berlin. I expect sales data for 2009 to be no where near as much of a decline as other areas are experiencing and starting next summer we have a very interesting thing happening; an influx of 1700 people (not inmates!) into our population.

There are quite a few properties for sale in this area right now, but despite the number of properties for sale, the number of people due to be moving into the area next year shows a housing shortage (approx. 100 homes available in the range from 75K-150K which is a predicted range of affordability and standard these people will be looking at.) With a potential influx of hundreds of more workers than available homes for sale, we are seeing developers from North Conway delivering homes to a new 88 unit subdivision and it makes perfect sense that we are poised for a sellers' market around this time next year due to this influx, despite the national economy.

[Matthew]

Jon,

We are still in the designing phases of this vehicle (there are similar ones like it) and I could probably talk people's ears off about the technical side of it. However, at this time, its more important for us to build/test our design. Our ES (electric sled or electric snowmobile) will be virtually quiet and have zero emissions, other than those produced at the power plant.

In terms of the economic situation of Berlin, I cannot see how anyone can be as optimistic as you are. I used to travel to Berlin a lot when I was going to the Gorham Schools and even though there was a... "smell", at least people had jobs and homes. It saddens me to be in the Gorham/Berlin area now and to think of all the people that I used to know who are now working low-paying jobs or are unemployed at all. Everywhere you look there are signs of neglect and decay.

I want Gorham/Berlin to flourish just as you do. However, I feel that the area will never return to the state that it was in while I was growing up there.