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March 01, 2016

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The End of Bernie ??? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_H-LY4Jb2M

Bernie Sanders Is Slip Slidin’ Away on Super Tuesday
Dented by losses in Nevada and South Carolina, he faces an ominous drop in support in key states.
By Jeet Heer
March 1, 2016

Super Tuesday was never going to be an easy ride for Bernie Sanders. It’s an election day heavy on Southern states like Georgia, Arkansas, and Alabama, where Hillary Clinton enjoys a strong advantage, owing to her deep political roots in the region going back to Bill Clinton’s days as governor of Arkansas, as well as the support of the black political class and the African American church. But what made Super Tuesday salvageable for Sanders is that it also includes a few states where he could win. His home state of Vermont was a natural, but he also polled well in Colorado, Massachusetts, and Minnesota. If he could resoundingly win these states and lose by not too large a margin in the states where Clinton is strong, Sanders would have ample grounds for continuing the fight.

The worrying fact for the Sanders campaign is that in the run-up to Super Tuesday there has been a slippage in his poll numbers even in the states he was expected to win. According to the Huffington Post aggregation of the national polls, Sanders was narrowing the gap with Clinton until February 17, when the former secretary of state led by just under eleven points. Since then—likely influenced by Sanders’s loss in Nevada and sound trouncing in South Carolina—the gap has extended to nearly 13 points.

More troubling is that this slippage extends to at least one of the states Sanders should have a lock on: Massachusetts, which neighbors both Vermont and New Hampshire, where Sanders won his only outright victory to date. Going by the Huffington Post aggregations, Sanders peaked in Massachusetts on February 16, when he overtook Clinton. Since then he’s been sliding, and is now down by 5.5 percentage points.

If the results of the Massachusetts polls hold, and Sanders sinks in even one of his supposed Super Tuesday strongholds, then the reasonable inference is that he peaked shortly before the Nevada caucus. His loss in Nevada then can be seen as the beginning of a slide that now threatens to become an avalanche.

Of course, polls can be wrong, and if Sanders defies the seeming trends on Super Tuesday, he’ll have a strong argument to continue his campaign. He certainly doesn’t lack for either money or an enthusiastic fan base.

https://newrepublic.com/article/130794/bernie-sanders-slip-slidin-away-super-tuesday

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